Gyanendra told Swami that he did not kill Birendra, US cable

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002126 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017 

TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NP IN

SUBJECT: 

HINDU RIGHT WINGER SAYS CLEAR-CUT NEPAL POLICY NEEDED TO PREVENT JUNE UPRISING IN KATHMANDU 

REF: A. NEW DELHI 1921 

     ¶B. KATHMANDU 00856 

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 

¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Former Commerce, Law and Justice Minister, 

Dr. Subramanian Swamy, President of the Janata Party, gave 

DepPolCouns May 1 a read-out of his April 26 visit to Nepal. 

Swamy said he met one-on-one with the following: 

-- King Gyanendra 

-- Gyanendra's son Crown Prince Paras 

-- Prime Minister G.P. Koirala 

-- the Ambassadors of India, China and Israel 

-- Rashtriya Prajatantra (National Democratic) Party 

President Pashupati Rana 

-- former Prime Minister Tulsi Giri 

-- former Deputy Prime Minister Shailaja Acharya 

-- Pashupati Dayal Mishra, Chairman, Loktantrik Madhesi 

Morcha (Democratic Madhesi Front) 

-- Thakur Singh Tharu, Vice Chairman, Tharu Kalyan Karani 

Swamy suggested that the Maoists were out to sabotage free 

and fair elections in Nepal, and warned that trouble could 

ensue as soon as June, when the Maoists might "bully" the 

Nepali Congress into declaring Nepal a republic and 

postponing elections.  This would incite Madhesis and the 

Nepali Army (NA), both of which he described as sympathetic 

to the monarchy, into action, he said.  Swamy contended that 

the Government of India (GOI) needed to take an active role 

in ensuring that there were enough election observers to hold 

free and fair elections no later than November, that the 

monarch stayed in place and Nepal was not declared a 

republic, and that the "democratic parties" of Nepal worked 

together and maintained law and order.  India's Rashtriya 

Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would be 

approaching the GOI on the issue soon, he stated, and he 

would suggest that the GOI convene a conference to clarify 

and strengthen its Nepal policy.  Swamy doubted the United 

Progressive Alliance government would take needed steps due 

to the support it derives from the Left.  END SUMMARY. 

Declaring a Republic Could Bring Trouble in June 

------ 

¶2.  (C) In a May 1 read-out of Former Commerce, Law and 

Justice Minister and Janata Party President, Dr. Subramanian 

Swamy's April 26-27 visit to Nepal, Swamy told DepPolCouns 

that those he met with held a "near unanimous" view that the 

Maoists would seek to sabotage a free and fair election for 

fear of losing badly, while the Madhesis and Janajatis could 

make substantial gains.  He opined that a "flash point" might 

come as early as June 2007, when the Maoists might "bully" 

the Nepali Interim Parliament into declaring Nepal a republic 

and postponing elections.  (Note:  Media reports quoted 

Maoist leader Prachanda as stating May 1, "If the legislature 

fails to declare Nepal a republican state, we will launch a 

total movement from the streets, cantonments, Parliament and 

the Government."  End note.)  This, he said, would be a 

double victory for the Maoists, eliminating elections and the 

monarchy in one fell swoop.  Swamy also suggested that most 

Nepalis support a constitutional monarchy versus a republic, 

and said he felt that the King had gained in strength since 

April 2006, especially among ethnic minority Madhesis, Tharus 

and Janajatis, and among the Nepali armed forces.  All of 

these groups would act, and trouble would ensue, if the 

Maoists were able to convince the Interim Parliament to 

declare Nepal a republic in June, he said.  Swamy cited 

lawlessness and Maoist violence and extortion as causes for 

this newfound support of the monarch. 

Swamy's Recipe for Success:  Hold November Elections, Keep 

the Monarchy, and Unify the Democratic Parties 

------ 

¶3.  (C) Swamy made three suggestions, which he intended to 

bring to the attention of the GOI, including: 

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-- Ensuring there were enough election observers to hold a 

free and fair election by November, and not establishing a 

republic prior to Constituent Assembly elections 

-- Finding a place for the monarch, which he contended had 

the support of the minorities, the NA, as well as PM Koirala, 

whom he said preferred to retain the king as a "buffer" 

against the Maoists. 

-- Bringing the factious Congress Party and other 

"democratic" elements together with the Madhesis to form a 

stronger democratic base.  Swamy maintained that the Maoists 

were banking on people's desire for law and order, and 

therefore, the democratic parties needed to pull together and 

begin maintaining peace. 

India Needs a Clear, Well-stated Nepal Policy 

------ 

¶4.  (C) Swamy stated that the rightist, pro-monarchy 

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would 

call a meeting to "define a policy" on Nepal, and that it 

planned to call upon the Indian Foreign Minister soon.  Swamy 

emphasized that the GOI needed to have a "clear, well-stated 

Nepal policy" that spelled out objectives, priorities, 

strategy and a focus on "opinion mobilization."  He planned 

to suggest that the GOI convene a conference for this 

purpose.  Swamy suggested that the USG's "tough line" on 

Nepal had been working and should not change. 

Gyanendra Invited Swamy 

------ 

¶5.  (C) Swamy asserted that he had visited Nepal at King 

Gyanendra's invitation, and noted that the King's now 

deceased brother Birendra (Note:  A victim of the 2001 royal 

family massacre.  End note) had been a student at Harvard 

when Swamy taught there in the 1960's.  Swamy relayed that he 

asked the King point-blank if he were guilty of committing 

the 2001 royal massacre.  King Gyanendra responded that he 

would have been convicted by now if he had been guilty, 

claimed Swamy. 

Chinese Won't Rock the Boat 

------ 

¶6.  (C) The Chinese Ambassador said he had no contact with 

the Maoists, according to Swamy, who opined that the Chinese 

wouldn't "rock the boat" in Nepal because events are moving 

in their strategic favor. 

India Not Likely to Change Its Current Course 

------ 

¶7.  (C) Comment:  Post does not doubt that Swamy, in concert 

with rightist Hindu groups such as the RSS and VHP, will 

bring his agenda to the attention of the GOI.  He has the 

contacts to do so, and met with Foreign Minister Mukherjee 

after meeting with DepPolCouns April 23 (see reftel a). 

Whether or not the GOI will take his advice is another 

matter.  The current government is hypersensitive to the 

wishes of its Left partners, which are sympathetic to the 

Maoists, and is therefore not likely to intervene, nor change 

its course, on Nepal.  End comment. 

¶8.  (U) We coordinated this message with Embassy Kathmandu. 

(From Wikileaks, released on Aug 30, 2011)