What Karan Singh told to Nepal King Gyanendra in 2006 uprising?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003050 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 

SUBJECT: INDIAN SPECIAL ENVOY PROPOSES WAY FORWARD IN NEPAL 

TO A/S BOUCHER 

REF: NEW DELHI 2609 

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 

¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan 

Singh told visiting SCA A/S Richard Boucher and NSC Senior 

Director Elisabeth Millard that he believes that the Nepalese 

political situation remains very fragile, and that it is 

uncertain who will lead the political process forward should 

current PM Koirala's health fail.  Dr. Singh also stated that 

while the disarmament of the Maoists will be a very difficult 

process, it - nor the constituent assembly - can be delayed 

due to the extreme fragility of the Nepalese polity. 

Finally, Dr. Singh thanked the U.S. for supporting India as 

the lead country in resolving the Nepal crisis.  END SUMMARY. 

SEVEN PARTY UNITY ALLIANCE STABLE, BUT LEADERSHIP UNCERTAIN 

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¶2. (S) Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan Singh met on 

May 3 with Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian 

Affairs Richard Boucher, Ambassador David Mulford, and NSC 

Senior Director Elisabeth Millard.  Dr. Singh commented how 

close the political situation in Nepal came to a populist 

revolution, with the king reinstating Parliament only hours 

before crowds were set to storm the royal palace, in a 

"Ceaucescu-like situation".  Dr. Singh believes that the 

Seven Party Alliance (SPA) will hold together, but he was not 

certain who would ultimately lead it forward, since 

recently-anointed Prime Minister Girja Prasad Koirala's 

health is failing, and Koirala has asked former Prime 

Minister Deuba to take his place if his health fails.  Dr. 

Singh went on to state that the two Congress parties (Nepali 

Congress and Nepali Congress (D)) should merge to form one 

party, with former PM Deuba as the Deputy or Prime Minister. 

UML leader Madan could be another candidate for succession 

should Koirala's health fail. 

MAOISTS MUST DISARM 

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¶3. (S) Any political settlement must also include the 

disarmament of the Maoists, Dr. Singh asserted.  Yet, how to 

proceed and verify this will be a "ticklish question". 

However, the GOI is clear that the Maoists must disarm. A/S 

Boucher and the Ambassador noted that this will be a 

contentious and lengthy process, citing the IRA experience in 

Ireland.  Dr. Singh responded that the Nepalese situation is 

much too fragile for lengthy delays - and that a new 

constituent assembly will have to be seated by no later than 

one year from now. 

KING (AND SON) SHOULD KEEP QUIET OVER COMING MONTHS 

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¶4. (S) Dr. Singh believes that the Constituent Assembly 

elections will not take place before October or November, 

since preparation of electoral rolls and the monsoons will 

cause delays.  Dr. Singh commented that the king is too weak 

to interfere with the processes already underway, and 

therefore there is no urgency to pass a constitutional 

amendment immediately to eliminate any potential royal 

interference with republican processes.  Dr. Singh thought 

that a constitutional monarchy could still be a possibility, 

barring any bad behavior by the palace over the next several 

months.  The king was personally told by Dr. Singh to send 

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his eldest son abroad for at least six months in order to 

prevent any further incidents which might incite public 

outrage. Dr. Singh noted that the king's son is extremely 

reckless and has killed several citizens in drug and 

alcohol-induced car accidents.  Dr. Singh went on to state 

that if there are no further reprehensible incidents 

involving the king or his son, a constitutional monarchy 

could still be on the table at the constituent assembly - an 

arrangement that India would prefer.  Lastly, Dr. Singh 

concluded the conversation by thanking the U.S. for 

supporting India as the lead country in resolving the crisis. 

 A/S Boucher noted that India performed a function that no 

one else could, and deserves credit for its role in resolving 

the matter. 

¶5. (U) Ambassador Boucher cleared this cable prior to its transmission.