Gyanendra told Swami that he did not kill Birendra, US cable

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002126 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017 
     B. KATHMANDU 00856 
Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Former Commerce, Law and Justice Minister, 
Dr. Subramanian Swamy, President of the Janata Party, gave 
DepPolCouns May 1 a read-out of his April 26 visit to Nepal. 
Swamy said he met one-on-one with the following: 
-- King Gyanendra 
-- Gyanendra's son Crown Prince Paras 
-- Prime Minister G.P. Koirala 
-- the Ambassadors of India, China and Israel 
-- Rashtriya Prajatantra (National Democratic) Party 
President Pashupati Rana 
-- former Prime Minister Tulsi Giri 
-- former Deputy Prime Minister Shailaja Acharya 
-- Pashupati Dayal Mishra, Chairman, Loktantrik Madhesi 
Morcha (Democratic Madhesi Front) 
-- Thakur Singh Tharu, Vice Chairman, Tharu Kalyan Karani 
Swamy suggested that the Maoists were out to sabotage free 
and fair elections in Nepal, and warned that trouble could 
ensue as soon as June, when the Maoists might "bully" the 
Nepali Congress into declaring Nepal a republic and 
postponing elections.  This would incite Madhesis and the 
Nepali Army (NA), both of which he described as sympathetic 
to the monarchy, into action, he said.  Swamy contended that 
the Government of India (GOI) needed to take an active role 
in ensuring that there were enough election observers to hold 
free and fair elections no later than November, that the 
monarch stayed in place and Nepal was not declared a 
republic, and that the "democratic parties" of Nepal worked 
together and maintained law and order.  India's Rashtriya 
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would be 
approaching the GOI on the issue soon, he stated, and he 
would suggest that the GOI convene a conference to clarify 
and strengthen its Nepal policy.  Swamy doubted the United 
Progressive Alliance government would take needed steps due 
to the support it derives from the Left.  END SUMMARY. 
Declaring a Republic Could Bring Trouble in June 
2.  (C) In a May 1 read-out of Former Commerce, Law and 
Justice Minister and Janata Party President, Dr. Subramanian 
Swamy's April 26-27 visit to Nepal, Swamy told DepPolCouns 
that those he met with held a "near unanimous" view that the 
Maoists would seek to sabotage a free and fair election for 
fear of losing badly, while the Madhesis and Janajatis could 
make substantial gains.  He opined that a "flash point" might 
come as early as June 2007, when the Maoists might "bully" 
the Nepali Interim Parliament into declaring Nepal a republic 
and postponing elections.  (Note:  Media reports quoted 
Maoist leader Prachanda as stating May 1, "If the legislature 
fails to declare Nepal a republican state, we will launch a 
total movement from the streets, cantonments, Parliament and 
the Government."  End note.)  This, he said, would be a 
double victory for the Maoists, eliminating elections and the 
monarchy in one fell swoop.  Swamy also suggested that most 
Nepalis support a constitutional monarchy versus a republic, 
and said he felt that the King had gained in strength since 
April 2006, especially among ethnic minority Madhesis, Tharus 
and Janajatis, and among the Nepali armed forces.  All of 
these groups would act, and trouble would ensue, if the 
Maoists were able to convince the Interim Parliament to 
declare Nepal a republic in June, he said.  Swamy cited 
lawlessness and Maoist violence and extortion as causes for 
this newfound support of the monarch. 
Swamy's Recipe for Success:  Hold November Elections, Keep 
the Monarchy, and Unify the Democratic Parties 
3.  (C) Swamy made three suggestions, which he intended to 
bring to the attention of the GOI, including: 
NEW DELHI 00002126  002 OF 002 
-- Ensuring there were enough election observers to hold a 
free and fair election by November, and not establishing a 
republic prior to Constituent Assembly elections 
-- Finding a place for the monarch, which he contended had 
the support of the minorities, the NA, as well as PM Koirala, 
whom he said preferred to retain the king as a "buffer" 
against the Maoists. 
-- Bringing the factious Congress Party and other 
"democratic" elements together with the Madhesis to form a 
stronger democratic base.  Swamy maintained that the Maoists 
were banking on people's desire for law and order, and 
therefore, the democratic parties needed to pull together and 
begin maintaining peace. 
India Needs a Clear, Well-stated Nepal Policy 
4.  (C) Swamy stated that the rightist, pro-monarchy 
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would 
call a meeting to "define a policy" on Nepal, and that it 
planned to call upon the Indian Foreign Minister soon.  Swamy 
emphasized that the GOI needed to have a "clear, well-stated 
Nepal policy" that spelled out objectives, priorities, 
strategy and a focus on "opinion mobilization."  He planned 
to suggest that the GOI convene a conference for this 
purpose.  Swamy suggested that the USG's "tough line" on 
Nepal had been working and should not change. 
Gyanendra Invited Swamy 
5.  (C) Swamy asserted that he had visited Nepal at King 
Gyanendra's invitation, and noted that the King's now 
deceased brother Birendra (Note:  A victim of the 2001 royal 
family massacre.  End note) had been a student at Harvard 
when Swamy taught there in the 1960's.  Swamy relayed that he 
asked the King point-blank if he were guilty of committing 
the 2001 royal massacre.  King Gyanendra responded that he 
would have been convicted by now if he had been guilty, 
claimed Swamy. 
Chinese Won't Rock the Boat 
6.  (C) The Chinese Ambassador said he had no contact with 
the Maoists, according to Swamy, who opined that the Chinese 
wouldn't "rock the boat" in Nepal because events are moving 
in their strategic favor. 
India Not Likely to Change Its Current Course 
7.  (C) Comment:  Post does not doubt that Swamy, in concert 
with rightist Hindu groups such as the RSS and VHP, will 
bring his agenda to the attention of the GOI.  He has the 
contacts to do so, and met with Foreign Minister Mukherjee 
after meeting with DepPolCouns April 23 (see reftel a). 
Whether or not the GOI will take his advice is another 
matter.  The current government is hypersensitive to the 
wishes of its Left partners, which are sympathetic to the 
Maoists, and is therefore not likely to intervene, nor change 
its course, on Nepal.  End comment. 
8.  (U) We coordinated this message with Embassy Kathmandu. 

(From Wikileaks, released on Aug 30, 2011)

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